How to time the market to buy a home

Purchasing a home is one of the biggest staples of wealth for most families in America. It’s the largest thing in their life that can create big wealth creation. Here are some things to be aware of if you’ve been on the sidelines and you’re trying to figure out when is really the best time to buy a house…

If we look back to recent years we can always say “Hindsight is 20/20”,  “I should have done that, I should have bought then”. We always look back with the lens into the past to evaluate whatever transpired before. We can’t regress we can only go forward so as a result how do you time the market? Well, the market is going to be constantly changing and evolving regardless of whether you buy a house or sit on the sidelines. You could purchase a house and then values could come down, you can sit on the sidelines, and then housing prices could continue to rise. Both arguments could absolutely play out regardless of what you choose to do or not do.

Knowing this information the best time to purchase a house from an investment standpoint is when there is financial pain in the market. The great investor Warren Buffett once said “I buy when there’s blood in the streets” and those words are actually very true. We experienced financial pain during the housing collapse. We are experiencing it again as it pertains to the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic has created significant financial pain within the markets and as a result, we’ve seening eye-opening historical mortgage rates. If we look at the last financial crisis housing prices plummeted but interest rates by and large in comparison to 2020 levels have remained relatively high during that time frame.  Whereas in 2020 housing prices continue to rise and interest rates are down driving affordability.

You should consider buying a home when you’re feeling comfortable with the mortgage payment and you’re feeling good about your income and your ability to save within a budget. If the mortgage payment to you and your family is sustainable over the course of time and do it with a five to seven-year time frame or longer, you will do very well for yourself financially. This is combined with your tax deduction, your home equity rising over time as well as the making timely repayments of principal and interest in conjunction with market forces.  Lead your home buying decision with affordability as it pertains to your income, future job, cash, and ability to save.

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When buying a home, it’s natural to want the lowest mortgage rate possible. But sometimes, chasing a slightly better rate from another lender—especially after your offer has already been accepted—can backfire in a big way. Let’s walk through a real-world scenario. You’ve got an offer accepted on a house. You’re working with a lender who has you approved, documents in underwriting, and a 21-day close of escrow in place. Everything is moving forward. Then you hear from another lender offering a rate that’s 0.25% lower, with slightly better closing costs. It’s tempting. But before you make a jump, here’s what you need to consider. Switching Lenders Comes with Time Costs When you pivot to a new lender mid-contract, they’ll need to: Re-underwrite your entire loan, Order a new appraisal, Disclose and sign new loan documents, Submit the file for final loan approval, Schedule and fund closing—all over again. This doesn’t happen overnight. Even in ideal circumstances, the new lender is likely going to need at least 25–30 days to close. If you’re in a fast-moving or competitive market, this is a real problem. Most sellers won’t grant a contract extension just because you’re switching lenders. So, what happens next? A Contract Extension Can Jeopardize Your Deal Asking for a contract extension means the seller must agree to delay closing. But that delay introduces risk—especially if the seller has backup offers or simply wants certainty. They may not grant the extension. Or worse, they could cancel the deal outright and take another buyer’s offer. Even if the seller agrees to extend, your earnest money and negotiation power could take a hit. And for what? A slightly lower rate that might save you $50 to $75 a month? Mortgage Rates Aren’t as Far Apart as You Think Here’s the truth: all mortgage lenders get their money from the same place—the bond market. The pricing differences between lenders usually range from 0.125% to 0.25% in rate on any given day. If one lender seems to be offering dramatically better pricing, the first thing you should ask is: How? Head over to FreddieMac.com and check the average 30-year fixed rate posted weekly. This is one of the most reliable benchmarks for where rates truly stand in the market. If a lender is quoting you a rate that’s well below that average, ask for the details: Are they charging extra points? Is this a teaser rate with a prepayment penalty? Is it based on a different loan product or risky structure? Often, what sounds “too good to be true”… is. Consider the Bigger Picture Think long-term. If you’re financing $600,000, a 0.25% lower rate may reduce your payment by roughly $75/month. But what if you lose the house and have to start over? That monthly savings doesn’t mean much if you’re outbid on your dream home or lose your deposit. Also, remember: you’re not going to keep this rate forever. Today’s homebuyers typically refinance when rates drop by about 0.75% or more. So if rates fall within the next year or two, you’ll likely be refinancing anyway. Instead of paying extra points now or risking the entire deal for a minor monthly savings, it may be better to accept a slightly higher rate—knowing you’ll refinance when the time is right. The Real Risk Isn’t the Rate—It’s the Delay When shopping for a home loan, don’t just ask, “What’s your rate?” Ask: Can you close on time? Is this rate sustainable or based on hidden costs? Will switching lenders delay or jeopardize my contract? A home purchase contract is a binding agreement between you and the seller to perform within a set timeframe. If you can’t meet those dates because you're chasing a slightly better rate elsewhere, you may want to reconsider if now is the right time to buy. Final Thoughts Yes, interest rates matter. But execution matters more. Before making a switch mid-transaction, talk to your lender. Have an honest conversation about pricing, timelines, and strategy. You might find that staying the course, securing the house, and planning to refinance later offers a better path to financial security. Want to Know Your Options? Let’s compare rates and strategies the smart way—without risking your dream home. 👉 Click here to get a custom rate quote today.

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