The Mortgage Files

Nationally syndicated mortgage news and advice from Senior Loan Officer Scott Sheldon.

Mortgage Rate Forecast: What to Watch and Why Timing Is Tough

By Scott Sheldon / February 4, 2026

Let’s face it—everyone wants to know when mortgage rates will drop. Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing an existing loan, or just watching from the sidelines, it’s tempting to wait for the “perfect” rate. But here’s the truth: no one can predict how low mortgage rates will go, not even the experts. That’s because…

When Mortgage Rates Actually Fall (And Why That Hasn’t Happened Yet)

By Scott Sheldon / January 14, 2026

Over the past week, there has been a lot of noise around mortgage rates. Headlines moved fast, social media lit up, and many buyers and homeowners were left wondering the same thing: “Are rates finally coming down?” The short answer, as of mid-January, is no. Mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. Last week, President Trump made…

Why a Federal Reserve Rate Cut Doesn’t Automatically Lower Mortgage Rates

By Scott Sheldon / September 22, 2025

On September 17th, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates—a move that had many people instantly thinking mortgage rates would drop too. But if you’ve been watching this closely, you know it doesn’t work that way. In fact, this exact scenario played out before. Back in June and again in September of 2024, everyone expected…

Why Income Drives Buying Power More Than Credit or Cash

By Scott Sheldon / July 8, 2025

When it comes to buying a home, most people focus on credit scores and down payments. Those two things matter—but if you ask any experienced loan officer what really determines how much home you can afford, the answer is simple: income. Income is the engine behind your buying power. It determines how much a lender…

What’s Driving the Volatility and What Comes Next?

By Scott Sheldon / April 15, 2025

Mortgage Rates in April 2025: What’s Driving the Volatility and What Comes Next As of April 2025, mortgage rates are experiencing notable fluctuations, reflecting the broader economic uncertainties. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered around 6.6% to 6.85% in recent weeks, influenced by various macroeconomic factors. Key Factors Influencing Current Mortgage Rates Federal…

The Impact of Lower Interest Rates on Housing Inventory Challenges

By Scott Sheldon / March 10, 2025

The U.S. housing market has been grappling with a significant inventory shortage, with an estimated deficit of 3.7 million homes. This scarcity has intensified competition among buyers, leading to bidding wars and elevated home prices. In this context, a reduction in mortgage interest rates can have profound effects on the market dynamics, particularly concerning home…

Why Housing Prices Will Rise: Understanding Interest Rates and Market Timing

By Scott Sheldon / September 18, 2024

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the “perfect” time to buy a house because of high interest rates, now is the moment to pay close attention. Over the past few years, mortgage rates surged to 7%, creating a challenging environment for homebuyers. However, with the recent dip into the 6% range for…

Why the Media is Not Your Friend When It Comes to Mortgage Rates

By Scott Sheldon / August 7, 2024

When it comes to understanding mortgage rates, relying solely on media sources can be misleading. The best barometer for where mortgage rates truly stand is the actual source: FreddieMac.com. This is the entity that buys the loans made and sold by mortgage aggregators. When you see headlines claiming that interest rates are lower or have…